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2014530
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Equities
й Ⱦ
12u
֮ǰ Ώ
12Ŀ Rmb39.90
֮ǰ -
Ƀr Rmb37.55
·: 002672.SZ 002672 CS
הҪָ
52ܹɃrΧ Rmb44.67-30.99
ֵ Rmb8.01ʮ/US$1.28ʮ
ѷйɱ 178 (ORDA )
ͨɱ 40%
վɽ(ǧ) 1,080
վɽ(Rmb ) Rmb39.6
ͨɹɖ| (12/14E) Rmb2.44ʮ
МQ (12/14E) 3.6x
ծ / EBITDA 0.2x
ÿ(UBS ϡͺ)(Rmb)
%
ЈAy
12/14E
-
1.11
-
1.27
12/15E
-
1.58
-
1.55
12/16E
-
2.09
-
2.30
ӱ
Ҫ (Rmb)
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
II
1,501
1,522
1,583 2,075
3,194
4,182
5,083
5,518
Ϣǰ(UBS)
245
307
204 281
434
601
745
831
Q (UBS)
204
267
208 258
367
484
570
638
ÿ(UBS ϡͺ)(Rmb)
1.08
1.23
0.92 1.11
1.58
2.09
2.46
2.75
ÿɹϢ (Rmb)
0.00
0.62
0.31 0.33
0.48
0.63
0.74
0.83
ֽ / (ծ)
(270)
722
501 (82)
(456)
(454)
37
777
ӯֵ
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
Ϣǰ(%)
16.3
20.2
12.9 13.6
13.6
14.4
14.7
15.1
ROIC (EBIT) (%)
-
30.0
15.3 16.5
18.1
19.4
21.8
24.0
EV/EBITDA(core)x
2.3
11.4
23.9 17.3
11.9
9.0
7.3
6.1
ӯ (UBS, ϡͺ) (x)
-
29.8
42.6 33.7
23.7
18.0
15.3
13.6
Ȩֽ (UBS) %
23.9
2.3
0.3 (6.9)
(3.9)
1.9
8.3
11.6
QϢ(%)
-
1.7
0.8 0.9
1.3
1.7
2.0
2.2
Դ˾桢Thomson ReutersUBS㡣 UBSĹֵǿ۳ĿԼĿ֮ǰֵ ֵݸȵƽɃró(E)20140529 16ʱ57ֵĹɃr(Rmb37.55)ó
ӱ, , S1460511100001, yingzhen.xu@ubssecurities.com, +86-213-866 8883
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״θw: |h 2014 5 30 3
Ŀ
Ͷʰ ................................................................................... 4
LU ............................................................................................................ 4
ֵƌ҂Ŀ˃rĻA ..................................................................... 5
yAڌЈһA ........................................................................ 5
Է .................................................................................................. 5
................................................................................... 7
ИIu .......................................................................................... 7
..................................................................................................... 8
Ӳ .................................................................................................. 9
ΣUʡͽʡչΣUI ......................... 9
1V|K挍ΣU ................................................................... 9
2oYԴbܘOȑ ............................................................... 9
3|hҵ ........................................................................... 10
δ3깫˾IL ............................................. 12
1YԴҵעۡ ...................................................... 12
2oĿӰ ................................................................. 15
3oĿչռϴ .................................................................... 17
4ΣUĿǰհ ................................................................................... 17
5ԤڽԟoĿչ ......................................................... 19
ؔՠr ................................................................................. 20
ʷ ................................................................................................... 20
ӯAy ................................................................................................... 21
ֵ ........................................................................................ 25
Ŀ˃rƌ ................................................................................................ 25
ɱȹ˾ ................................................................................................... 26
........................................................................................ 27
˾ ................................................................................................... 27
ӱ
S1460511100001
yingzhen.xu@ubssecurities.com
+86-213-866 8883
S1460511120001
wei.yu@ubssecurities.com
+86-213-866 8857
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 4
Ͷʰ ״θw|h“”Ԥ2014-16깫˾EPSֱΪ1.11/1.58/2.09ԪͬٷֱΪ24%/42%/32%VCAMֽģͺ8.5%WACCõĿ39.9ԪӦ2014-16PEֱΪ36/25/19 ΣYԴӾ硢ë» Σ̎ҵĿǰYԴ͟oIJزƥ䡣ǹV|ʡΣϮbԼ300/꣬ӦΣ324/꣨ѾͶbIJܣзٟ+10/ꡣΣYԴңëУӽ۸½صвܻر½綫YԴë2013ͬȼ6ppt26.3%˾ʷˮƽԤδм½LU oӯģʽYԴ ǰӴִȲΥɱ±Σo̎õIJȱڼ½ĿͶbɴѡַ¢Ϊҵ֣ĿչDz㶫δΣ̎òУoռȽ1332%С1834%oëYԴ2ϣԤ16oëռȿɴ38% V|ͷȫȡ߱ǿչ沢DZ ˾ҵԹҵΣ̎Ϊ̎ΪΣ̎õֲԏV|ΪKΪ2013깫˾Σϲ411Ԥ2016137֡Ŀǰ˾ΣϴռV|ʡܴ13%зֱٟռV|ʡ27%60%2013깫˾ʵ15.8ڣȫˮƽϵΣ̎Пoز㣬ض½Ϊ˾ľʽڹ˾ Ԥ14-16ͷŸ߷塢ҵ ȥ5꣨2009-13꣩Σϴ17ӵ41֣19.0%Ԥ2013-16꽫ӵ137֣3긴49.1%˾̎ҲնĿԤ2014-18깫˾ҵCAGRֱΪ31.4%12.6%
LU
|hٵLUҪУ
YԴҵ1۸µLUģʽԽ۸ĸ߶У۸µķȳԤڣ¹˾
1 ֹ51%Ķţͬ
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1: yAyԱЈһA
fԪ
2014E
2015E
2016E II
yAy
2,075
3,194
4,182
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1,967
2,683
3,591
5.4%
19.0%
16.5% Q
yAy
258
367
484
ЈһA
257
362
524
0.2%
1.2%
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עݽ2014528ա Դ: Wind֤ȯ
Է
|hӯ~ۡΣϲɹۿʺͿʮУǾʹ˶2014ëEPSԷǵĻΪ2014~ͬΪ-6.7%YԴԭϲɹۿ2pptͶbĿһ50%ڶ75%
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 6
ͼ2: 2014ëEPSԷ ~r׃ -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
- ë䶯
-4.4%
-2.2%
0.0%
2.2%
4.4%
- EPS䶯
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-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.1% YԴۿʱ䶯 -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%
- ë䶯
3.5%
1.7%
0.0%
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6.5%
3.3%
0.0%
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5.0%
10.2%
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4.0%
8.2% oʱ䶯 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
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0.0%
1.9%
3.8%
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0.0%
2.6%
5.1%
Դ: ֤ȯ
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 7
ИIu
ԔИIՈ҂ͬrlġЇΣU̎ИIؽͶY߄١
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0
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2010
2011
2012
2013
IUYԴ
IUo
U̎
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h̼
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
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2010
2011
2012
2013
IUYԴ
IUo
U̎
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״θw: |h 2014 5 30 11
Σͨȶ̻ٟȷʽаȫ2013ֱռ˾63%15%ǹ˾ҪԴ
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2011
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2015E
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
|
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YԴʱ䶯
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-5%
0%
5%
10%
- ë䶯
-9.1%
-4.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.2%
- EPS䶯
-7.2%
-3.7%
0.0%
4.0%
8.2%
Դ: ֤ȯ
ͼ19: 2014깫˾ҵYԴۿʵԷ
YԴۿʱ䶯
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
- ë䶯
3.5%
1.7%
0.0%
-1.7%
-3.5%
- ë
1.1%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.1%
- EPS䶯
6.5%
3.3%
0.0%
-3.3%
-6.5%
Դ: ֤ȯ
2oĿӰ
Ԥ2014-18꣬Σϟoģʵ31%٣2018ӵ51.5/ğoԸߣﵽ34%
ͼ20: 2011-2018EΣϟo/꣩
עֹ51%Ķţ8.3/꣬2010Ͷb Դ: ˾ݣ֤ȯ
ɳ20
ɳǶһΣշﴦأ2013괦ԭȵ9.2֣YԴ8.1֡o1.2֣20֣YԴ12.5֣o7.5֣˾Ŀǰա
ĿǰйģΣϴģ괦ﵽ34֣ռص57%ڶλķֱǖ|hɳغڻأ5ƽģ0.7/СΣϴ˾
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
ĩ
әƽ
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 16
ڹIĸٰlչʹΣU̎ѲؓڔUĿxַ}ttoMУǹ˾ĴI˹˾ڴ˕rɳؔUb^r˺ͣ҂ļs10f̎ܿ쌍FMؓ\С
50/ΣĿ
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ĿǰPӋlΣU̎24fhܝM㮔Ҏģ5fϵֻ2ңքe7.5f7fKԺͻΣU⡣
˾ԤĿ2014-16½Ͷbܴﵽ80/꣬жӵ50/꣨o7/꣩ʣΣϴҵ
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ͼ21: Σϴ
ͼ22: ΣͶbƻ֣
Դ: V|ʡ
Դ: ˾
괦ģ20ֵĽŹҵﴦ
ĿǰTΣU̎˾ǽT^G˾̎Ҏģ4fUVͼ͏UˮHW08H˾ͶbĽTҎģ1/5ҽTؿ̎ΣUNh^G˾
˾Ԥ2014ĩŻͶb괦20֣YԴ͟oֱΪ13ֺ7֡
Σϴ 57%
-ɳ 33%
-ڻ 4%
6%
1
3
22
3
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
ٟ
ﻯ
C
2014E
2015E
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 17
3oĿչռϴ
ֱӪЧʽϵͣչĿ
2003귢ġȫΣշҽƷ̎ʩ滮ùծ֧滮Σϟo̎ʩ裬2013ǰʩԼΣϷٟʩ֤ɻͨΣɵطŰ䷢ҹĿǰĴΣϼ̎ĴУ佨ȡЧʺӯձרҵ˾
2011𣬇δP@OʩćͶYӋK13䌏·ط҂J@һϵe룬ʩُ
ƽ̨ڹ˾ʵʩչ
ΣҵᵽĿǰo̎ʩϡȱԴڹӦ״̬ڱУСܻǷȱʽһֹȨ|hΣרҵ̎ù˾Ψһй˾Ź˾չ߱Եƽ̨ơ
ʵϣ˾ⲺһֱչвΪĿǰ˾ڏV|ʡڽĿ20122014չΪ˾һսԡ
ͼ23: AչΣ̎ù˾ϸ
ُ˾
ُrg
չ۸ (fԪ)
ֹɱ
ǰ
(f/)
Q (fԪ)
ُǰ
ُ
Ͷb
ڽ/M
2012
2013 Զ 2012 46.8 20% 62.5% YԴ 2.6 5.8 16.9
麣
2012
12.0
35%
75%
YԴ
1.0
1.2
NA ˵´ 2012 30.2 0% 51% YԴ 0.9 5.1 1.8 3.3
|ݸ㽡
2013
77.0
0%
100%
YԴ
5.0
YԴ4.0 o4.0
-1.1
-1.4 ʧ NA NA NA YԴ+o 26.0 83.6 102.4
غ̏U
2014
23.2
0%
60%
o
0.6
0.3
NA
8.3
Դ: ˾
4ΣUĿǰհ
1Uf늲
ķϾɼҵĿֱλڏV|ԶͺТ滮괦ֱΪ8ֺ5֡
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ڽУҲδѡԤĿ2015깤Ͷb
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 18
ǽh|һй˾——µĽϾɼҵĿ˶ԱȣȫͶb20127ѡһ
ͼ24: h|vsķϾɼҵĿ
Դ: ˾ݣV|ʡʡ
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2l
ҵͶb14MWĿǰΨһڽƺ2MW飨8MWͶbĿAʱĿƻ201310ͶbĿǰƳ2015ף˾ʾΪۺо÷ʵЧݻ裩
20144£˾Կr9,660fԪُϲ¹ںͺϷ¹ڃɼl늹˾ُᣬ˾6MWbC
ͼ25: ϲ¹ںͺϷ¹չϸ
չ۸ (fԪ)
ُɱ
װģ (MW)
˰ (Ԫ/ǧʱ)
2013 (fԪ)
2013Q (fԪ)
ϲ¹
96.6
100%
3
0.6220
14.46
4.83
Ϸ¹
100%
3
0.6190
12.44
4.83
Դ: ˾ݣʡί
3͏N}ǰ
ԭИI⣬˾ҲLԇչI
ͳ
41
4
96
39
106
11
112
7
150
81
137
9
0
50
100
150
200
(fԪ)
Q (fԪ)
(̨)
ʵʲ (̨)
̨ (Ԫ/̨)
̨Q (Ԫ/̨)
h|
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 19
˾һͳBOTĿԤƽ2014Ͷbմ300֣ݿУ͜QֱΪ0.35/0.03Ԫ˾ǰ߱Ӫ飬˴β͏N̎̽ʣΪĿӯܲԤڣռ˾ӯıغܵͣӰ첻
201311£˾뽭Kﻷ˾ӹ˾кʹ˾51%ȨKһרҵȾˮĹ˾2013йͶ»1,500ԪͶʡ
ϣ뽭KĺҵʵϣⲢǶĵһγԡ20126£˾ͬͻҵ˾˾µˮȾҵ˫δܴһ¶ֹ
Դ20144ϷһȫȾ鱨棬˶Ⱦ飬Ⱦʮأ˶ܸߡΪһ\dz̨רķ滮Ҿڽꡣǿöڸǰ֣Ԥƶޡ
5ԤڽԟoĿչ
CӑՓ҂J2018꣬˾ҪIУ
ΣշYԴٽ۸µ;Ӿսëʽ½ĶֵͷŴ洦
ΣշoӦ㹻ӣϴӣëٽYԴҵԤƴﵽ34.3%
U̎Դã磩ܣ
ͳ̎õȴڡ
ڴ˾δڟoļ沢չ
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 20
ͼ26: 2013깫˾ë
ͼ27: 2018E˾ë
Դ: ˾
Դ: ֤ȯ
ؔՠr
ʷ
ږ|hΣ̎ΨһһAй˾HɵĹʺAɵɣhٟΪûȫɱȵĹ˾
ǵΣYԴռһëѡȡYԴΪԴõIJοYԴƷΪΣΪܷۺۣYԴΪҹ˾IJɹ۶ֶǹҵͻ
ΣϵӪĿӪĹ˾Ҳһɱԣ|hĿëռȲ10%Ҳֱѡȡ̷ϺˮӪAͷ˾——ɣhͱˮԴΪοɣhӵɶΣ̎ģˮԴӪҲֱ۲Ʒҹ˾ӪĿĿͻΪ
ӯ|h2009-13ĜQʻ13-14%ң2012AǰROEԼ19-24%к15%13꽵10%Դù˾YԴ2012УǰROEɱȣĿӪ˾ҪBOTĿصĻȷϷʽ
IUYԴ 57%
IUo 30%
U̎ 4%
Դ 4%
h̼ 5%
IUYԴ 53%
IUo 39%
U̎ 3%
Դ 2%
h̼ 3%
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 21
ͼ28: |h˾ĜQʶԱ
ͼ29: |h˾ROEԱ
Դ: ˾
Դ: ˾
ֽԴù˾У|hֽ״ռţ2012-13꾭ӪԾֽռ֮ȷֱΪ20%/22%ͬڸΪ-18%/1%YԴΪ3%/-2%ĿӪ˾ȣ|hֽҲɣhˮԴ൱
Ӧ˿ͬҵͻΪĸYԴȣ|hӦ˿תʲԵƣȽȶ8-9%ҡĿӪ˾ȣúܶ࣬ҪΪǰߵĿͻΪؿȲҵͻ
ͼ30: |h˾ľӪԾֽ/Ա
ͼ31: |h˾Ӧ˿תʶԱ
Դ: ˾
Դ: ˾
ӯAy
龰У҂¼O
2014-16~ͬٷֱΪ-6.7%/-6.5%/-1.7%
ͶbĿһ50%ڶ75%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
|h
YԴ
ɣh
ˮԴ
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
|h
YԴ
ɣh
ˮԴ
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
|h
YԴ
ɣh
ˮԴ
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
|h
YԴ
ɣh
ˮԴ
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 22
2014-15YԴΣԭϵIJɹۿÿ2ppt
ԤƣŹ˾ͷţ2014-16깫˾Σ괦ͬȽֱ112%/51%/3%88/133/137֣ӦәƽĴֱͬ27%/68%/33%52/87/116֡
ڴڼ䣬ëֱʵ38%35%ͬ٣ПoռȽ201315%Լ20%ëռ29%Լ40%Ķʵ2014-16Q23.9%/42.1%/31.8%ͬ١
YԴҵӾ罫²ɹɱԤƹ˾ëʽ201330.5%201628.3%ʱ֧ӴIJԤƜQʽ13.2%11.6%
ͼ32: |hؼ衢IIëԤ
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E ؼ
~ͬ
-13.5%
-7.0%
-6.7%
-6.5%
-1.7%
ĩΣϴ (f/)
35.9
41.5
88.0
133.0
137.5
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22.7
28.3
59.6
94.2
97.6
- o
13.2
13.2
28.4
38.8
39.9
У|
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3
әƽΣϴ (f/)
34.1
40.9
51.9
87.2
115.7
- YԴ
22.7
27.7
31.0
57.4
79.9
- o
11.4
13.2
20.9
29.8
35.8
У|
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3 II (fԪ)
IUYԴ
939
1,004
1,090
1,959
2,770
ҵﴦ̎
200
243
416
638
793
U̎̎
126
135
231
250
260
Դ
57
65
93
93
103
h̼
166
96
206
215
217
Q
33
39
39
39
39
Ӌ
1,522
1,583
2,075
3,194
4,182 Ӫҵë (fԪ)
IUYԴ
303
264
259
417
587
ҵﴦ̎
139
140
239
366
455
U̎̎
31
18
36
39
41
Դ
22
21
30
30
34
h̼
52
23
49
51
51
Q
15
17
17
17
17
Ӌ
562
483
630
921
1,185 Ӫҵë
IUYԴ
32.3%
26.3%
23.8%
21.3%
21.2%
ҵﴦ̎
69.5%
57.4%
57.4%
57.4%
57.4%
U̎̎
24.3%
13.0%
15.7%
15.7%
15.7%
Դ
38.4%
32.7%
32.7%
32.7%
32.7%
h̼
31.3%
23.6%
23.6%
23.6%
23.6%
Q
44.0%
43.5%
43.5%
43.5%
43.5%
Ӌ
36.9%
30.5%
30.4%
28.8%
28.3%
Դ: ˾ݣ֤ȯ
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 23
ͼ33: |h
(fԪ)
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E II 1,522 1,583 2,075 3,194 4,182
N۳ɱ
(975)
(1,110)
(1,457)
(2,293)
(3,022) ë 547 473 618 902 1,160
N۹M
(240)
(269)
(337)
(467)
(559) II 0 0 0 0 0
Ϣǰ
307
204
281
434
601 Ϣ (3) (1) (2) (16) (34)
ǰǽIĿ
17
33
25
25
25 ǰ 333 271 337 476 625
(39)
(28)
(37)
(52)
(69) 294 244 300 424 556
Q
267
208
258
367
484
IL
1%
4%
31%
54%
31% Ϣǰ 20% 13% 14% 14% 14%
Ϣǰ
26%
-33%
38%
55%
38% Q 31% -22% 24% 42% 32%
Դ: ˾ݣ֤ȯ
ͼ34: |hʲծ
(fԪ)
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E ι̶YbQֵ 572 588 935 1,886 2,359
oι̶YbQֵ
341
539
597
577
538 Ӫʱ 310 395 397 438 439
Lؓ
(102)
(87)
(87)
(87)
(87) Ͷʱ 1,121 1,435 1,843 2,813 3,249
ͶY/Yb
429
514
926
676
649 ܶʱ 1,551 1,949 2,768 3,489 3,898
ֽ/ծ (722) (501) 82 456 454
ɖ|
2,094
2,242
2,436
2,725
3,064 ܶʱ 1,551 1,949 2,768 3,489 3,898
̶ʲ 21% 3% 59% 102% 25%
I\YL
4%
28%
0%
10%
0% ʱ 18% 26% 42% 26% 12%
Դ: ˾ݣ֤ȯ
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 24
ͼ35: |hֽ
(fԪ)
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E Ϣǰ 307 204 281 434 601
f
75
93
152
250
314 Ӫʱ仯 (46) 15 (1) (41) (1)
I
17
60
27
41
59 IԬF (Ϣ˰ǰ) 354 373 458 684 974
Ϣ
(3)
(1)
(2)
(16)
(34) Ѹ (39) (28) (37) (52) (69)
Y֧
(191)
(318)
(970)
(930)
(721) ֽ 121 26 (550) (314) 149
Ϣͨɣ
(75)
(60)
(69)
(77)
(110) (123) (186) 31 17 (37)
QլF()/p
984
(220)
(583)
(374)
2
Ϣ
1.7%
0.8%
0.9%
1.3%
1.7% Y֧/ 12.5% 20.1% 46.7% 29.1% 17.2%
Qՙ
-34.5%
-22.3%
3.4%
16.7%
14.8%
Դ: ˾ݣ֤ȯ
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 25
ֵ
Ŀ˃rƌ
Ԥ2014-16깫˾EPSֱΪ1.11/1.58/2.09ԪͬٷֱΪ24%/42%/32%VCAMֽģͺ8.5%WACCõĿ39.9ԪӦ2014-16PEֱΪ36/25/19ǵгԹ˾δгԤڲѳַijڹɃrУ״θw|h“”
ͼ36: VCAMֵ
Դ: UBS-VCAM
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״θw: |h 2014 5 30 26
ɱȹ˾
Դ|hҵƵAй˾иYԴ̷Aй˾ɣhʢ˹ɷݺ
Ա5ҹ˾͖|hԿ|hǰɃrӦ2014/15/1634/24/18PEҵƽˮƽ൱Դ˾̷ͣع˾ǵĿռëؽС10%Ԥδ3-5ˣΪԴ˾Ĺֵ߲οֵ
ͼ37: ˾ӯAyֵһ
עɣhˮԴĤƼ۹Ƽ|hӯAyΪ֤ȯ㣬˾WindһԤڡɃrݽ2014529ա Դ: Wind֤ȯ
Ƀrֵ(Ԫ/)(fԪ)2014E2015E2016E2014E2015E2016E2014E2015E2016EԴø002340.SZ11.2110,3560.290.380.6138.5x29.5x18.4x3.1x2.8x2.5xYԴ601388.SSΏ9.323,8210.270.34NA34.5x27.4xNANANANAƽ36.5x28.5x18.4x3.1x2.8x2.5x̷ɣh000826.SZ22.1718,7030.821.001.1426.9x22.2x19.4x3.6x3.2x2.8xʢ˹ɷ300090.SZΏ14.997,9370.670.941.2322.3x15.9x12.2x3.7x3.1x2.5x600323.SSΏ10.716,2040.460.580.7023.3x18.6x15.2x2.1x2.0x1.9xƽ24.2x18.9x15.6x3.1x2.7x2.4xˮˮԴ300070.SZI33.3729,7481.401.972.1123.8x16.9x15.8x4.9x3.8x3.1x300055.SZΏ28.806,5890.841.101.4034.2x26.1x20.6x3.2x2.9x2.6xĤƼ300334.SZI33.205,7770.851.231.4639.1x27.0x22.7x6.2x5.2x4.3xе绷300172.SZΏ16.052,7120.520.660.7830.7x24.4x20.5x2.9x2.6x2.4xƽ32.0x23.6x19.9x4.3x3.6x3.1x600388.SS23.9110,2241.201.241.1319.9x19.3x21.2x3.2x2.9x2.6xеԶ600292.SSΏ17.989,2030.820.900.9122.0x20.0x19.7xNANANA002573.SZΏ17.069,0900.520.740.8632.9x23.1x19.8x3.7x3.2x2.8xƽ24.9x20.8x20.2x3.5x3.1x2.7x۹Ƽ300203.SZ14.606,4970.480.550.6430.4x26.4x22.6x3.1x2.8x2.5xѩ002658.SZΏ19.255,2930.650.831.0629.7x23.2x18.1x4.0x3.5x3.0xȺӻ300137.SZΏ20.954,2490.510.680.8841.1x30.9x23.9x4.0x3.6x3.2xƽ33.7x26.8x21.5x3.7x3.3x2.9x˾ƽ30.0x23.4x19.3x3.7x3.2x2.8x|h002672.SZ37.558,6951.111.582.0933.7x23.7x18.0x3.6x3.2x2.8xPB˾EPS (Ԫ/)PE
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 27
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|h1999916գ20031ڸ۽ҵУ20109ת۽У2012426СС˾ҪӪΣշﴦYԴú͟oϾɼҵ⡢U̎ദͽԼָǺͳǵ2013꣬ΣշYԴ͟oֱ63%15%ĠII롣
ͼ38: |hȨṹͼ
Դ: ˾
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 28
|h (002672.SZ)
p(Rmbf)
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
%
12/15E
%
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
II
1,501
1,522
1,583 2,075
31.1
3,194
54.0
4,182
5,083
5,518
ë
506
547
473 618
30.6
902
45.9
1,160
1,422
1,564
Ϣ˰f̯ǰ(UBS)
311
382
298 433
45.5
685
58.1
916
1,111
1,220
f̯
(66)
(75)
(93) (152)
62.8
(250)
64.7
(314)
(365)
(389)
Ϣǰ(UBS)
245
307
204 281
37.5
434
54.5
601
745
831
IͶY
11
12
36 33
-9.3
33
0.0
33
33
33
ǠII
21
17
33 25
-23.4
25
0.0
25
25
25
QϢ
(20)
(3)
(1) (2)
-7.7
(16)
-884.0
(34)
(37)
(31)
Ŀ ()
0
0
0 0
-
0
-
0
0
0
ǰ
257
333
271 337
24.2
476
41.3
625
766
857
(37)
(39)
(28) (37)
-33.2
(52)
-41.3
(69)
(115)
(129)
219
294
244 300
23.2
424
41.3
556
651
729
ȹɹϢٔə
(15)
(27)
(35) (42)
-18.9
(57)
-36.3
(72)
(81)
(91)
dzĿ
0
0
0 0
-
0
-
0
0
0
Q ( GAAP)
204
267
208 258
23.9
367
42.1
484
570
638
Q (UBS)
204
267
208 258
23.9
367
42.1
484
570
638
(%)
14.6
11.6
10.3 11.0
7.3
11.0
0.0
11.0
15.0
15.0
ÿ(Rmb)
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
%
12/15E
%
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
ÿ(UBS ϡͺ)
1.08
1.23
0.92 1.11
20.7
1.58
42.1
2.09
2.46
2.75
ÿ(ؕӋtϡ)
1.08
1.23
0.92 1.11
20.7
1.58
42.1
2.09
2.46
2.75
ÿ (UBS, )
1.08
1.23
0.92 1.11
20.7
1.58
42.1
2.09
2.46
2.75
ÿɹϢQֵ(Rmb)
0.00
0.62
0.31 0.33
8.6
0.48
42.1
0.63
0.74
0.83
ÿ~rֵ
17.73
9.28
9.93 10.52
5.9
11.77
11.9
13.23
14.95
16.88
ƽɔ(ϡ)
188.21
217.38
225.71 231.56
2.6
231.56
0.0
231.56
231.56
231.56
Ybؓ(Rmbf)
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
%
12/15E
%
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
FͬFȃr
256
1,032
949 366
-61.4
321
-12.2
420
912
1,652
Yb
618
735
678 731
7.9
914
24.9
1,004
1,021
962
Yb~
873
1,767
1,627 1,098
-32.5
1,235
12.5
1,424
1,932
2,613
ι̶YbQֵ
473
572
588 935
59.1
1,886
101.6
2,359
2,641
2,598
oι̶YbQֵ
173
341
539 597
10.9
577
-3.4
538
498
460
ͶY/Yb
465
429
514 926
80.0
676
-27.0
649
424
372
Yb
1,984
3,110
3,267 3,556
8.8
4,374
23.0
4,970
5,496
6,044
~ؓ
319
425
282 335
18.5
476
42.3
565
611
621
ڂ
183
198
323 323
0.00
653
101.92
750
750
750
ؓ~
502
623
606 658
8.6
1,129
71.6
1,315
1,361
1,370
Lڂ
342
111
125 125
0.0
125
0.0
125
125
125
Lؓ
90
102
87 87
0.0
87
0.0
87
87
87
ȹ
0
0
0 0
-
0
-
0
0
0
ܸծ(ȹ)
934
837
817 870
6.4
1,341
54.1
1,526
1,572
1,582
ͨɹɖ|
946
2,094
2,242 2,436
8.7
2,725
11.9
3,064
3,463
3,909
ɖ|
103
179
208 250
20.2
308
22.9
380
461
552
͙ؓ濂Ӌ
1,984
3,110
3,267 3,556
8.8
4,374
23.0
4,970
5,496
6,044
F(Rmbf)
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
%
12/15E
%
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
Q(֧ȹɹϢǰ)
204
267
208 258
23.9
367
42.1
484
570
638
f̯
66
75
93 152
62.8
250
64.7
314
365
389
I\Y׃ӜQֵ
71
(46)
15 (1)
-
(41)
-3169.2
(1)
29
69
IIԬF
59
16
27 11
-58.9
40
263.5
74
86
89
IԬF
401
312
344 420
22.0
616
46.8
870
1,050
1,185
Y֧
(213)
(191)
(318) (970)
-205.1
(930)
4.1
(721)
(384)
(256)
Y֧
0
0
0 0
-
0
-
0
0
0
(չ) / ̎
0
0
0 0
-
0
-
0
0
0
ͶYԬF
29
(65)
(142) 33
-
33
-
33
33
33
ͶYԬF
(184)
(256)
(459) (937)
-104.0
(898)
4.2
(689)
(351)
(223)
ѸϢ
(31)
(75)
(60) (69)
-15.4
(77)
-11.4
(110)
(145)
(171)
ɷݰl/ُ
12
1,061
0 6
-
0
-
0
0
0
YԬF
20
(58)
(45) (2)
96.45
(16)
-884.01
(69)
(63)
(51)
ծȹɱ仯
(141)
(216)
139 0
-
330
-
97
0
0
YԬF
(141)
713
34 (65)
-
237
-
(83)
(208)
(222)
FЬF/(p)
76
768
(82) (583)
-613.5
(45)
92.3
99
491
740
⏡/ǬFĿ
-
7
(1) 0
-
0
4907362.2
0
0
0
YbؓF/(p)
-
776
(83) (583)
-604.9
(45)
92.3
99
491
740
YρԴ˾UBS㡣(UBS)ֵڿ۳uĿĿ֮ǰĔֵ
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 29
|h (002672.SZ)
ֵ(x)
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
P/E ( GAAP, ϡͺ)
-
29.8
42.6 33.7
23.7
18.0
15.3
13.6
ӯ (UBS, ϡͺ)
-
29.8
42.6 33.7
23.7
18.0
15.3
13.6
Ƀr/ÿɬF
-
23.3
29.4 21.2
14.1
10.9
9.3
8.5
Ȩֽ (UBS) %
23.9
2.3
0.3 (6.9)
(3.9)
1.9
8.3
11.6
QϢ(%)
-
1.7
0.8 0.9
1.3
1.7
2.0
2.2
МQ
-
3.9
4.0 3.6
3.2
2.8
2.5
2.2
ҵֵ/II()
0.5
2.9
4.5 3.6
2.6
2.0
1.6
1.4
ҵֵ/Ϣ˰f̯ǰ()
2.3
11.4
23.9 17.3
11.9
9.0
7.3
6.1
ҵֵ/Ϣǰ()
2.9
14.2
NM 26.6
18.8
13.7
10.8
9.0
Irֵ/IɬF()
2.8
13.7
NM 23.6
17.3
12.9
10.3
8.6
Irֵ/\IͶY
-
4.3
5.3 4.4
3.4
2.7
2.4
2.2
ҵֵ (Rmb)
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
ֵ
787
5,287
7,858 8,009
8,009
8,009
8,009
8,009
ծ (ֽ)
270
(722)
(501) 82
456
454
(37)
(777)
ɖ|
103
179
208 250
308
380
461
552
BϽ܂/
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
Irֵ~
1,160
4,744
7,565 8,341
8,773
8,843
8,433
7,784
ǺYb
(445)
(374)
(446) (857)
(607)
(580)
(356)
(303)
Irֵ
715
4,370
7,120 7,484
8,166
8,263
8,077
7,481
L(%)
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
II
-
1.4
4.0 31.1
54.0
30.9
21.5
8.6
Ϣ˰f̯ǰ(UBS)
-
23.0
-22.1 45.5
58.1
33.7
21.3
9.9
Ϣǰ(UBS)
-
25.6
-33.5 37.5
54.5
38.4
23.9
11.4
ÿ(UBS ϡͺ)
-
13.3
-24.8 20.7
42.1
31.8
17.8
11.9
ÿɹϢQֵ
-
-
-50.6 8.6
42.1
31.8
17.8
11.9
cӯ(%)
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
ë
33.7
35.9
29.9 29.8
28.2
27.7
28.0
28.4
Ϣ˰f̯ǰ
20.7
25.1
18.8 20.9
21.4
21.9
21.8
22.1
Ϣǰ
16.3
20.2
12.9 13.6
13.6
14.4
14.7
15.1
(UBS)
13.6
17.5
13.2 12.4
11.5
11.6
11.2
11.6
ROIC (EBIT)
-
30.0
15.3 16.5
18.1
19.4
21.8
24.0
ͶYY؈
-
26.4
13.5 14.7
16.1
17.3
18.5
20.4
ɖ|ر(UBS)
-
17.5
9.6 11.0
14.2
16.7
17.5
17.3
YYcw
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
ծ/Ϣ˰f̯ǰ
0.9
(1.9)
(1.7) 0.2
0.7
0.5
(.0)
(0.6)
ծ/Ȩ %
25.7
(31.8)
(20.4) 3.0
15.0
13.2
(1.0)
(17.4)
ծ/ծ + Ȩ棩%
20.4
(46.6)
(25.7) 3.0
13.1
11.6
(1.0)
(21.1)
Q/Irֵ
37.7
(16.5)
(7.0) 1.1
5.6
5.5
(0.5)
(10.4)
Y֧ / f %
NM
NM
NM NM
NM
NM
117.8
72.8
Y֧/II(%)
14.2
12.5
20.1 NM
29.1
17.2
7.5
4.6
Ϣǰ/QϢ
12.5
NM
NM NM
27.9
17.5
20.2
27.0
Ϣϱ (UBS)
-
2.0
3.0 3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
Ϣ֧ (UBS) %
-
50.8
33.4 30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
ֲ (Rmb)
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
1,501
1,522
1,583 2,075
3,194
4,182
5,083
5,518
Ӌ
1,501
1,522
1,583 2,075
3,194
4,182
5,083
5,518
ֲϢǰ (Rmb)
12/11
12/12
12/13 12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
12/18E
245
307
204 281
434
601
745
831
Ӌ
245
307
204 281
434
601
745
831
YρԴ˾UBS㡣(UBS)ֵڿ۳uĿĿ֮ǰĔֵ
״θw: |h 2014 5 30 30
Ay؈
ԤɃrǷ +6.3%
ԤϢ 0.9%
ԤƱر +7.2%
гرʼ 9.5%
Ԥⳬر -2.3%
LU
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״θw: |h 2014 5 30 31
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֤ȯι˾ŵĹơţUBS AGӹ˾֧ڴͳΪUBS
UBSͻԼоƷԵķʷҵ֡ԼйUBSоͶʽĸ¶ʣwww.ubs.com/disclosuresɃrͼеָǹȥı֣ȥıֲһɿġԤ⽫ָꡣҪṩϢ ֤ȯι˾Ǿй֤ȯලίԱ֤ȯͶѯҵʸĻ.
: ÿλҪдоȫݵоڴͱἰ֤ȯÿҷˣ1κι۵ȷطij˶Ը֤ȯ˵Ŀ ,ԶķʽصIJ֣2нκɲڹȥڼڱоľ彨۵ֱӻӵĹϵ
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ԱUBS Securities LLCκη˾Ӷķδȫ֤ȯЭᣨNASDŦԼ֤ȯNYSEע߱һϿɵķʸ˲NASDNYSEй˾ͨڹڳ¶Լ˻֤ȯĹݵơԱÿһҹ˾QԼù˾Ӷķġ
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״θw: |h 2014 5 30 32
|h (Rmb)
01-Apr-09
01-Jul-09
01-Oct-09
01-Jan-10
01-Apr-10
01-Jul-10
01-Oct-10
01-Jan-11
01-Apr-11
01-Jul-11
01-Oct-11
01-Jan-12
01-Apr-12
01-Jul-12
01-Oct-12
01-Jan-13
01-Apr-13
01-Jul-13
01-Oct-13
01-Jan-14
01-Apr-14
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10.0
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ļ֤ȯι˾ (ŵĹ) ơţUBS AGӹ˾֧ڴͳΪUBS
ļڷɵ·šļڴں֮κεݡһ˾Ͻλеκ˻ʵʹãڸõ˾ϽУṩʹøļΥɻܹ涨κעҪļΪṩϢ Ȳǹ棬Ҳǹκνڹκξ彻ײԵҪԼҪԼйϢ⣬ûжԱļϢ“Ϣ”ȷԡԻɿκʾʾ֤ļ漰֤ȯгչṩijܽᡣŵϢʹϢ¡ļκι۵Կڲ֪ͨģҲܲͬڻIռŻĹ۵෴ļлڵݾΪԵṩݡϢ/۵ĽͣЩݡϢ/۵ɵͨȡãЩݡϢ/۵ʹúͽδ˶ԡ
ļκͶʲԻ鲢ʺͶضͶʽͶʽ顣гLUͶļڹ߲һеĹҺ͵͵ͶۡȨƷڻδʺͶߣҴڹߵĽ״ںܴLUסѺ֧֤ȯʲ֧֤ȯкܸߵLUҿʱ仯гض־IJʿܶԱļἰ֤ȯعߵļֵ۸Ӱ졣йͶѯִл⣬ͻӦϵ䵱ص۴
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Ӣŷ ڴرļUBS LimitedṩʸĽֻרҵͻUBS LimitedӢܾ֣PRAȨӢгΪܾ֣FCAӢּܾܡ UBS LimitedƣUBS LimitedUBS Securities France S.A.ַUBS Securities France S.A.ܷܾ֣ACPͽг֣AMFܡUBS Securities France S.A.ķ뱾ļıƣļҲͬUBS Securities France S.A.ơ ¹ UBS LimitedƣUBS LimitedUBS Deutschland AGַUBS Deutschland AGܵ¹ڼܾ֣BaFinܡ UBS LimitedƣUBS LimitedUBS Securities España SV, SAַUBS Securities España SV, SA֤ȯгίԱᣨCNMVܡ 䣺 UBS LimitedַļûκϢΪ乲κʽСƽκʱгߺͷġˣļñΪ乲ĻҪҪԼδʱгίԱݡʱгɱţ6362涨䷢ɡˣδʱгίԱ£ļκ漰ڹķвϲ乲ڵκṩκʱгǣݵ32ŷ15 (d) (ii)֮涨乲ں֤ȯûơ UBS Limited (spolka z ograniczona odpowiedzialnoscia) Oddzial w Polsceַ ˹ UBS Securities CJSC Ʋַ ʿ UBS AGͶ߷ַ UBS LimitedƣUBS LimitedUBS Italia Sim S.p.AַUBS Italia Sim S.p.Aк֤ȯίԱᣨCONSOBܡUBS Italia Sim S.p.Aķ뱾ļıƣļҲͬUBS Italia Sim S.p.Aơ Ϸǣ JSEȨûȨڷṩUBS South Africa (Pty) Limitedַ ɫУ ļUBS LimitedַUBS LimitedӢܾ֣PRAȨӢгΪܾ֣FCAӢּܾܡUBS Securities Ltdɫ֤ȯܾ֣ISAܵijͶƽ̡UBS Limited ɫ֮Ĺδáɫйʷ涨ɡϽŸ/ɫйʷx‘ϸͶ’κ˲Ӧϻݱϲȡж ɳذ ļţ/ӹ˾ַ֧һеĹɷ˾ʿעַΪAeschenvorstadt 1, CH-4051 Basel and Bahnhofstrasse 45, CH-8001 ZurichļѻUBS Saudi Arabiaӹ˾ù˾ɳذһɳطʽɷݹ˾ҵע1010257812עַTatweer Towers, P.O. Box 75724, Riyadh 11588, Kingdom of Saudi ArabiaUBS Saudi Arabia ɳʱгȨչ֤ȯҵܣҵպ 08113-37 UBS Securities LLCUBS AG ķ֧-- UBS Financial Services Inc.ַͶߣUBS AG δעΪ˻̵ҵš֧’’ ַҪͶߡUBS Securities LLCUBS Financial Services Inc.ͨ䷢ͶߵġɷƵļݸͶ߶Աļἰ֤ȯĽױͨUBS Securities LLCUBS Financial Services Inc.ִͨС ô UBS Securities Canada Inc.һѾעעĿڼôչҵĹַUBS Securities Canada Inc.һҾעļôͶʾ̺ͼôͶ߱Ա : Ǿ˵UBS Brasil CCTVM S.A ַסڰʸͶߣ (i) ڻ, (ii) չ˾Ͷʱ˾, (iii) Ͻʵ壻 (iv)Ͷʶ$300,000.00 Ƕʵ塢ȷΪϸͶߣ (v)Ͷʻ (vi)Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM)Ȩ֤ȯͶϾ֤ȯʣ (vii)ݡн籣ϵͳ ۣ UBS Securities Asia Limitedַ ¼£ UBS Securities Pte. Ltd[mica (p) 107/09/2013 Co. Reg. No.: 198500648C]UBS AG ¼·зַκɴļй֮ˣUBS Securities Pte Ltdһ¼²ʷ(110)x֮ʣUBS AG ¼·Уһ¼²ʷ(110)x֮ʼ¼з(19)ִҵ¼½ڹּ֮Mļ֮շCΪCȯڻ(289)x֮ϿɼͶߡ ձ UBS Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Ͷ߷ַļUBS Securities Japan Co., Ltd., UBS Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Ϊļߣ˼ˡUBS AG, Tokyo Branch ַ㼰ҵصרҵͶߣɣ Ĵǣ 1) UBS AGĴǽڷִպţ231087/UBS Securities Australia LtdĴǽڷִպţ231098ַļϢвδκͶߵĿꡢؔՠrͶڸϢȡж֮ǰӦĿꡢؔՠrЩϢǷʺϡļϢ漰2001 깫˾761Gx“”ͻûܻijһضҪƷ¶ĽڲƷۿͻھòƷ֮ǰӦòòƷйصIJƷ¶2) UBS Wealth Management Australia LtdĿͻ: UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd.ַUBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd ABN 50 005 311 937 Ĵǽڷִպţ231127Chifley Tower, 2 Chifley Square, Sydney, New South Wales, NSW 2000ĿͻĽһϢ/һ㽨飬Ը˵ĽڲƷ顣ɴ˱ļϢвδκͶߵĿꡢؔՠrͶڸϢȡж֮ǰӦѯʡκļκβƷ¶UBS AG ȨڰĴṩԼйصĽڲƷ飬UBS AG㼰ʷһ㽨顣 UBS New Zealand LtdַļϢͽ˽һϢ֮áʹκδϢ鹹ɲ飬Ҳδκ˵ľؔՠrĿꡣǽ鱾ļĽշѰĽ顣 ϰݣ UBS AG Dubai Branchַרҵͻʹãڰڽһַ UBS Securities Pte. Ltd.춺ַļܲʱUBS Securities Pte. Ltd.֮Уơ ǣ ļUBS Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd (253825-x)Ƿַ ӡ: Prepared by UBS Securities India Private Ltd. 2/F,2 North Avenue, Maker Maxity, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai (India) 400051. 绰: +912261556000 SEBIע: NSEֽ: INB230951431, NSEڻȨ: INF230951431; BSEֽ: INB010951437.
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